2020 U. S. presidential election results as of 1:30 pm EST, 6 November 2020
6 November 2020
In October 2020, the terms blue mirage and red mirage began appearing in news coverage of U. S. presidential election. The terms relate to the shifting perceptions of which party would be ahead at different points while the tallying of votes was underway (cf. red state / blue state / purple state).
While it has always been common for the lead in various elections to swing back and forth as the results from different districts are reported, it was anticipated that these swings would be especially noticeable given the large number of early in-person and vote-by-mail ballots in the 2020 election, a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and people’s desire to avoid crowded polling places. That would mean that an early lead in the initial reports could evaporate, not only during the course of election night, but over the subsequent days and even weeks as mail ballots were counted.
It was widely anticipated that early in-person votes would favor the Democrats in most states, but that lead would be overcome by a Republican-heavy, in-person vote on election day itself. And in many states that Republican lead would itself be overcome as the vote-by-mail ballots were counted. These early leads would be ephemeral and mere mirages.
The earliest use of the terms blue mirage and red mirage that I’m aware of is in a Reuters report of 22 October 2020. It’s likely that there are earlier uses, especially oral ones.
The states that count mail-in votes before Election Day are likely to give Biden an early lead, since opinion polls and early voting data suggest those ballots favour the Democrat. Conversely, the states that do not tally mail-in votes until 3 November will likely swing initially for Trump.
These so-called red or blue mirages will disappear as more ballots are counted, though experts say it may take days or even weeks to process the huge number of mail-in ballots, spurred by voters seeking to avoid crowded polling stations because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Whether these terms will survive to become part of the permanent political lexicon, or if they will become mere mirages themselves, remains to be seen.
Sources:
Reuters. “Explainer | Red Mirage, Blue Mirage: Beware of Early US Election Wins.” News24 (South Africa), 22 October 2020. Nexis Uni.
Image credit: David Wilton, 2020, generated with 270towin.com.